Misdiagnosis by Gillard

Listening to the radio this morning on way to work.

Gillard using the famous phrase “moving on.”  Not sure whether she’s deliberately harking back to a period when we were doing that, but it didn’t work well last time.  I’d have stayed away from that.

She is declaring that it’s all over.  That’s because she’s misdiagnosed the problem.  Her belief is that the cause is some people destabilising her leadership, and with this spill and mess, that they’ve now lost legitimacy and it’s over.

That’s a wrong diagnosis.  The problem is that her leadership is in trouble, she and her advisors are making poor decisions and mismanaging the political process.  As a consequence of that people are disenfranchised and looking for a saviour.  So unless she’s going to start making good decisions and managing the political process well, it is most certainly not over.

As per yesterday, I predict a small bounce for Gillard with the end of this process and the end of sitting.  Probably not in Newspoll next week, but in the poll after that.  But it won’t last, and as long as Labor are down at 3x%, this unhappiness will continue.  Unfortunately that is a self-reinforcing cycle, so it’s hard to see the circuit breaker that they’re looking for.  Perhaps the small bounce from the ending of this process can be coaxed into a trend, but I doubt it.

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One thought on “Misdiagnosis by Gillard

  1. Pingback: Latest Newspoll: Labor behind, but recovering somewhat | technpol

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