So, I’m not going to get into predicting the election. I was getting around to thinking that Abbott would beat Gillard, and that Rudd would not roll Gillard. Clearly the second bit wasn’t right. The smart money remains on Abbott to win, I’d just note that Rudd will have a bounce and some of Abbott’s support is soft. And that a bit of ill discipline in the Libs could see them lose it.
What I’m interested in today is what this means for Labor. There are a lot of senior Ministers retiring at the next election. Stephen Smith today, Swan, Gillard, Emerson and Garrett yesterday.
So, let’s assume Rudd will lose too (not a given when so much of the media love him, but let’s assume). So, once a party loses, what they need is renewal. They won’t get back into power until they show generational change. If they lost without changes now, then those people would all resign gradually, perhaps with by elections, and the process would be slow. Conversely, by elections are easier to win – people might be feeling like they’d given the coalition too much power and come back to Labor.
So, this current process is bringing some of the bloodletting forward, but at the cost of probably losing some additional seats. Is that good or bad for Labor? My feel is probably net good, even if it means they have a smaller core to rebuild from over the next few years.